Extending Zac Gallen Will Be Difficult For The Diamondbacks
What would it take for the Diamondbacks to keep their ace, and what are the advantages and disadvantages for each side?
As the Diamondbacks go about their business of trying to improve their roster for the 2024 season and beyond, contract extensions for key players may be something they consider to improve stability. Today, we weigh the pros and cons of a potential Zac Gallen extension.
Arb 2, estimated salary of $11 million, free agent after 2025 season
Gallen, who will be 28 years old next year, finished third in the 2023 National League Cy Young voting. In 2022, he finished fifth. Over those two seasons, he’s thrown 394 regular-season innings with a 3.04 ERA, ranking eighth and ninth among all MLB starters in those categories. His 9.6 Baseball Reference WAR and 27 victories both rank fourth. By any measure, he’s been a top 10 starter in MLB, and possibly a top five.
With two years until free agency, he is expected to earn around $11 million in arbitration in 2024, rising to $15-$18 million in 2025 depending on how the 2024 season goes.
Notably, Aaron Nola recently signed a seven-year extension with the Phillies for $173 million, or about a $25 million average annual salary. That contract will cover Nola’s age 31-37 seasons. While Nola is considerably older than Gallen, it’s worth comparing their first five seasons in the league.
The difference in innings pitched is primarily due to the Pandemic-shortened 2020 season. Nola’s first five seasons ended in 2019, while Gallen’s runs through 2020. Their Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, is remarkable similar because the components that make up that metric (home runs, walks, and strikeouts per nine innings) are nearly identical. Gallen’s advantage in ERA and WHIP is largely due to the caliber of the defenses he faces, as evidenced by BABIP numbers. Philadelphia’s defense was frequently subpar, whereas the D-backs’ defense was usually above-average. The two pitchers approached the situation differently as well. During that time, Nola’s best pitch was his curveball, while Gallen’s was his fastball.
If Gallen is truly interested in negotiating a deal, the D-backs could offer him six years and $150 million ($25 million average annual) and possibly extend it to seven years and $175 million. That would cover his last two arbitration years as well as four or five years of free agency. Gallen would be a free agent after his 34th season and, if healthy, would be young enough for another multiyear contract.
He may decide to bet on his ability to stay healthy and effective until the end of 2025. In that case, he would enter free agency at 30 years old, one year younger than Nola, having just earned at least $26 million over the previous two years of arbitration.He’d then be in line for a potential $200 million contract over seven years, if not more.
There are some caveats for the D-backs that go beyond the usual health concerns with any pitcher. Gallen missed time on the injured list in 2021 due to two separate arm injuries. His home run and hard-hit rates skyrocketed in the second half of 2023, and his ERA rose in tandem. He had a few shaky starts in the postseason, but he finished on a high note, pitching a no-hitter into the seventh inning of Game 5 of the World Series. Gallen pitched 244 innings in 2023, 50 more than his previous career high of 184 innings in 2022.
As of this writing, it is unknown whether the D-backs have held extension talks with Gallen’s agent, Scott Boras. Those discussions had not yet taken place, according to Nick Piecoro of AZ Central on March 29th, 2023. Boras clients, according to conventional wisdom, do not sign extensions, but Boras refutes this notion, claiming that his clients have signed more extensions than anyone else.
An interesting quote from that article by Mike Hazen discusses the sensitivity of these types of negotiations.
If the D-backs and Gallen negotiate and fail to reach an agreement, the final two seasons could be very uncomfortable for both parties. Hopefully, this will not be the case. Diamondbacks fans would like to see their ace stay with the team, and with the current free agent market prices, this may be the best place for the D-backs to spend some of their available funds.
