On Tuesday evening, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reported that the Detroit Tigers have “serious” interest in veteran Japanese starting pitcher Kenta Maeda. Most Tigers fans are familiar with the 35-year-old right-hander from his four seasons with the Minnesota Twins. He previously spent four years with the Los Angeles Dodgers after dominating the NPB in his mid-20s and eventually being posted for free agency by MLB teams.
One particularly intriguing tidbit from Petzold’s source is that the Tigers see signing Maeda as a way to gain a foothold with Japanese players.The idea is that signing Maeda and making him feel welcome and comfortable, as well as assisting him in finding more post-Tommy John success, will help the Tigers establish a reputation as a more appealing landing spot for Japanese pitchers than has previously been the case.
The key quote from Petzold’s piece on the subject is as follows.
“Because the Tigers want to establish themselves in the Japanese pitching market, signing Maeda to a short-term deal — and providing him with first-class experience — would help lay the groundwork for future deals.” He’d also bring a much-needed veteran presence to the young pitching staff.”
This all makes a lot of sense. Detroit is simply not on the international map. Although Miguel Cabrera’s presence is beneficial in Latin America, particularly Venezuela, the organization has never been able to convert any of that goodwill into international signing classes. However, the Tigers have rarely appeared in Japan, Korea, or Taiwan, where the best baseball in Asia is played.
Most of Japan’s younger starting pitchers, from 25-year-old top free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto to 22-year-old prodigy Roki Sasaki, who is still at least a few years away from potentially being posted for MLB teams to consider, grew up watching Maeda as one of the era’s elite starters.He is respected and admired as a veteran who accomplished everything in Japan before returning to the United States to enjoy a long and reasonably successful career in the major leagues.
That’s all well and good, and I’m glad to see Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg working hard to open up some of these international markets. The key question is obviously how successful Maeda will be in Detroit, and how much closer he can bring the team to contending for the division in 2024.Maeda has always had good command and the stuff to rack up above-average strikeout totals, and that continued in his 2023 return to the Twins after missing the entire 2022 season recovering from UCL reconstruction surgery.However, as his velocity has dropped to 91 mph averages or lower in recent years, the lower powered stuff has been hit hard at times, and Maeda has had some real home run problems, including in 2023 when he allowed 1.47 home runs per nine innings.
With his strikeout-to-walk ratios still at excellent levels, you can live with a little more home run vulnerability than average, especially for a fly ball pitcher who consistently posts a high WHIP. If the Tigers sign him, they’re probably confident they can help him reverse that trend. With a full season between him and his stay in Tommy John rehab purgatory, he could see a slight increase in velocity as well. Nonetheless, velocity hasn’t been a part of his game in a long time.If anything is likely to set him up for success, it’s the possibility that Comerica Park will help Maeda keep a few more balls in the park than Target Field ever did, as well as a pretty good looking Tigers defensive outfield.
Despite a fastball that reached 90-91 mph, Maeda’s plus-plus splitter remained a dominant pitch in 2023. Hitters produced a truly pitiful performance.Last season, he had a 222 wOBA against the split. Maeda doesn’t allow many home runs against the fourseam fastball, but he does allow a lot of hits. Meanwhile, the slider was a make-or-break proposition. Last season, the slider was responsible for 10 of the 17 home runs he allowed in 104 13 innings. Normally, he gets a lot of whiffs, but when he makes a mistake with it, hitters feast.
Maeda has adapted over the years by throwing about 30% fourseamer, slider, and splitter, with a few curveballs and sinkers thrown in for variety. So he’s already limiting his fastball usage. In that regard, he may have gone too far, creating too many opportunities for hitters to look for the slider.
One possibility that the Twins were perhaps less equipped to investigate than Chris Fetter was was using the sinker more to throw more fastballs overall. Despite having a nearly identical spin axis, Maeda’s fastballs have a decent amount of movement deviation. Leaning into the seam-shifted action of his sinker and throwing less of the fourseamer would result in a more complicated fastball mix and possibly fewer barrels. Of course, keeping the slider in the yard only helps if a change like that allows Maeda to successfully throw more fastballs overall.
Maeda had a 4.23 ERA and a 4.02 FIP in 2023, totaling 1.5 fWAR. He still appears to be a 2-3 win starting pitcher for the time being, despite being in a slump dating back to the first signs of arm trouble in 2021. Steamer projects him to pitch 132 innings with a 4.15 ERA and 2.0 fWAR. The Tigers could certainly benefit from that.
In isolation, it’s a great idea.
Adding Maeda is a good idea in general, whether it helps them attract other Japanese pitchers or not. He’s still a good pitcher and a lot of fun to watch because of his accuracy when he’s on. The issue is signing Maeda on his own. If this is the case, the rotation will be even weaker than it was before the offseason. He’s a fine addition, but he doesn’t get the Tigers’ rotation to where it needs to be if they want to be a serious contender in 2023. Having said that, I’m curious to see it.
Maeda’s 2023 numbers aren’t great, but he had a rough start in particular before going on the injured list for about eight weeks in late April with a triceps strain. That’s the kind of injury that often comes with a return to action, and as long as Maeda’s medical reports are in order, there’s nothing to worry about. After returning from injury, he pitched extremely well in June and July before fading slightly in August and September. However, by the end of the season, his fastball velocity had increased by a full tick from the low point before the triceps strain.I wouldn’t expect 175 innings from him, but in his second year back from UCL surgery, it’s not a bad bet that he’ll have a slightly better season.
Maeda has excellent command and the ability to carry out a game plan. Fetter excels at creating game plans and fine-tuning fastballs and pitch mixes to help alleviate home run issues. It would be exciting to see Maeda put that to use, but the Twins are no slouches in the pitching department these days. Expect the projections to be correct rather than a late-career resurgence, but perhaps the Tigers have a few x-factors that will help him produce a little more here than in Minnesota.
Hopefully, the Tigers have more plans than this, but Maeda is a solid option for them in terms of starting depth. We’ll see if they can reach an agreement.
