Fans of Washington Football finally had something to celebrate, albeit three years later than expected. This fulfilled Dan Snyder’s 2020 press conference pledge to wish Ron Rivera a happy Thanksgiving.
I am not talking about the humiliating 45-10 defeat to the Dallas Cowboys in front of the third-highest attendance of an NFL regular season game ever. That was embarrassing and excruciating.
But loss also holds the possibility of rebirth. The Commanders’ ascent in the draft order and contribution to the likelihood that Dan Snyder’s staff will be long gone by the time the next general manager has the opportunity to utilize the wealth of draft capital are the bright spots amid the cloud of defeat that hung over Texas Stadium on Thanksgiving Day.
Focus on the Goal
Just two weeks ago, when I wrote the introduction to the 2023 Tank Tracker, the earliest pick in the draft that I could reasonably expect the Commanders to select was fifth overall. Everything has changed after the subsequent losses to the Giants and Cowboys, along with some assistance from friends.
If the season ended today, the Commanders would have already jumped up to the fifth pick in the draft order and would be very close to the fourth overall pick. The Commanders could theoretically still finish first overall, but that would take a lot of unlikely circumstances, including Arizona and New England losing two or more games and Carolina winning four of the six games left.
However, think about what it would mean if the Commanders selected fourth overall. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye, two of the best quarterback prospects in the 2024 draft class, are predicted to be selected with the first two picks. The majority of Commanders fans have two outstanding LT prospects at the top of their wish lists. There would be no guarantee that Joe Alt (6’8”, 315 lbs) of Notre Dame or Olu Fashanu (6’6”, 321 lbs) of Penn State would be available for the Commanders to select. If the team selecting third chooses to go with the best QB still available (Bo Nix or Michael Penix?) or a top prospect (WR Marvin Harrison Jr., TE Brock Bowers, or Edge Laiatu Latu), there’s a good chance that both will still be available.
The new general manager will have the luxury of choosing whether to select an elite prospect at a position of need or trade back in the first round to acquire multiple additional high draft picks to replenish the talent pool that was depleted by his predecessors. The Commanders acquired the extra picks by trading Chase Young or Montez Sweat.
The Commanders have moved up two spots in Tankathon’s draft order to fifth overall after the Titans and Giants won and Dallas lost. Furthermore, Washington is now within striking distance of the fourth overall pick after the Bears’ unexpected upset of the Vikings on Monday Night Football.
Possibility of Advancement
Moving forward, a significant portion of their own fate is under the Commanders’ control. The highest they could select if they lose all of their remaining games is seventh overall because only two teams with four wins—the Buccaneers and the Jets—have a weaker schedule. They have already shown they are capable of losing to any team by their losses to the Bears and Giants, so that is well within their reach. They risk falling out of the top 10 completely if they are determined to win another game just to claim a moral victory.
The Commanders will require assistance from the teams in front of them in order to move up in the draft order. The main focus should be on the Bears, who upset the Vikings on Monday night to record their fourth victory. The Commanders can pass them and get the fourth overall pick just by losing that one more game. When the Bears take on the Cardinals (2-10) in Week 16, there’s a good chance they’ll win five games. The Panthers (5-6) and Falcons (5-6) are their next weakest opponents.
It will be extremely difficult to move up the draft order past fourth. The Patriots (2-9) and Cardinals (2-10) would each need to win two more games to drop behind the Commanders in the draft order if they can avoid any more victories, as they both have a stronger schedule. Chicago’s first pick, via Carolina (1-10) is essentially unachievable because Carolina would need to defeat Washington with four of their final six games and has a weaker schedule overall.
Dangers Coming from Below
Even if the Commanders lose every game left, they might not still hold the fifth overall pick. Both the Jets and the Bucs are currently 4-7, and their schedules are less favorable. Both teams will jump ahead of Washington in the draft order if they lose.
Three more four-win teams (the Giants, Chargers, and Titans) and three five-win teams (the Raiders, Saints, and Packers) with a weaker schedule will pose threats to Washington if they win one more game.
Jack Del Rio, the defensive coordinator, is the coach on the hot seat (FIRED). After the humiliating defeat on Thanksgiving, owner Josh Harris reportedly conferred with Ron Rivera, who suggested that DC Jack Del Rio be relieved of his responsibilities. Whatever had actually transpired, there was a great deal of joy across the country.
Ron Rivera is the head coach and head of football operations. Ron Rivera was last fired from his position as head coach 1092 days ago. It seems that Rivera is safe until the end of the season after Del Rio was fired as a gesture to placate an irate fan base. For the time being at least
That could quickly change, though, if the defense’s promised adjustments fail to improve the NFL’s lowest scoring defense and lessen its susceptibility to big plays. On Sunday, when the Commanders host the Miami Dolphins—the football equivalent of the perfect storm—Riva will face the league’s top scoring offense.
Eric Bieniemy, coordinator of offensive plays. In Dallas, Bieniemy’s offense faltered once more, scoring their third-lowest total of the year. Nevertheless, they have only scored fewer than 20 points four times this season; in 2022, they did so nine times. With the exception of Andrew Wylie, who will be tough to separate from, Bieniemy has managed the growth of Sam Howell into a reliable starting quarterback and can persuasively argue that his offensive line’s deficiencies are largely to blame for the unit’s problems.
Bieniemy is probably safe for the remainder of the season, barring another disaster. Nevertheless, no member of the coaching staff should be at ease given the pace at which disasters have been occurring.
Rooting Guide for Week 13
The main picture is that, for the remainder of the season, Washington will be up against fierce competition from a few teams with comparable records for draft position. Teams with four or five wins (Chicago, Tampa, Jets, Raiders, Saints, Packers) and a weaker schedule present the most immediate opportunities and threats. If any team in the top four or five wins more games after them, it will aid in preserving the Commanders’ draft position. Encourage each and every one of those teams to heat up in the last six weeks of the season.
In light of the foregoing, the following is a helpful guide to assist you in supporting game outcomes that will strengthen and safeguard the Commanders’ draft position.
Thursday Night Football: Cowboys (8-3) vs. Seahawks (6-5)
Although they are playing Dallas, the Seahawks pose little threat to the Commanders’ draft standing. Become the twelfth man!
Commanders (4-8) vs. Dolphins (8-3) in Sunday Games
Go ahead and support your team; it won’t likely make a difference. But keep in mind that we will get closer to selecting a top-tier left tackle if the Dolphins manage to score 70 points against Ron Rivera’s porous defense. To the Redskins, hail! OR Let Fashanu lose a few! Call you.
