We provide our top player prop bets to take into account for the Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints in Week 13.
Over 64.5 rushing yards (-115) David Montgomery
I usually advise looking at the “rushing + receiving” betting line because Detroit’s running backs are skilled in the passing game. The line for Montgomery is 74.5 (-110), or 10 yards greater than just “rushing yards.”
With the exception of the game in which he was hurt, Montgomery’s output this season has only once failed to produce this “rushing + receiving” combo, totaling 74 yards in Week 1 and 71 yards last week. Though not nearly as close, both are still fairly close to the estimated number.
If we limit our analysis to Montgomery’s “rushing” stats, we see that he has averaged 90.6 rushing yards per game this season and has carried for at least 67 yards in every game (excluding the Bucs game when he was hurt).
The betting line between “rushing” and “rushing + receiving” yards is tight, therefore it seems sense to go with the lower number that has a higher probability of being efficient.
Sam LaPorta, more than 40.5 yards gained (-125)
This week, during Jeremy and Ryan’s conversation with Matt Miguez of Canal Street Chronicles for our First Byte podcast, he made the comment that LaPorta might hold the key to the Lions’ win.
Miguez declared, “You will win on Sunday because the Saints just cannot stop tight ends.” “They have not been able to stop tight ends this year, even though defensively they have usually done a good job at it. Since this year has been so unusual, Sam LaPorta is kind of an X-factor in this match.
My investigation of the Saints’ output versus tight ends has intensified as a result of that remark. According to league statistics, they give up 4.45 receptions and 45.1 receiving yards per game to tight ends on the season, which is average to marginally over average.
However, a closer look at their most recent actions reveals more of Miguez’s recommendations. The statistics over the last six games have indicated that tight ends have produced at a higher rate, particularly for teams who use a tight end in their scheme.
Last week, Atlanta’s game plan was to dominate the run game. They ran for 228 yards against the Falcons, and Kyle Pitts only caught two receptions for 22 yards. However, the Saints gave up 11 receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown to T.J. Hockenson and 6 receptions for 55 yards and two touchdowns to Cole Kmet in the two weeks prior, when they faced offenses with top 10 tight ends (like LaPoprta). Against New Orleans, Hockenson and Kmet both outperformed their season averages. Furthermore, in the previous weeks, the Colts’ group of tight ends recorded three receptions for fifty yards, Evan Engram recorded five grabs for forty-five yards, and Dalton Schultz recorded four receptions for sixty-one yards.
TL:DR version: During the course of the last six games, the Saints have allowed tight ends to average 5.33 receptions and 63 yards per game, compared to their season average of 4.45 receptions and 45.1 receiving yards per game.
Take the OVER 40.5 receiving yards here given LaPorta’s average of 5 receptions for 49 yards per game and the Saints’ recent inability to stop tight ends, particularly elite ones.
David Montgomery, more than five touchdowns on the ground (-115)
My recommendation for this bet was influenced by two considerations. First off, Montgomery has scored a running touchdown in each of his games with the Lions, with the exception of the Bucs game when he was hurt and had to leave early. Second, the Saints’ defense has shown weaknesses lately, much like the tight end production figures mentioned above.
The Saints have only given up seven running touchdowns this season, but six of those have come in the previous five games. The Vikings and Jaguars scored twice in the end zone, while the Falcons and Colts scored once on the ground.The Bears are the only club in the last five games to have failed to score a rushing touchdown against the Saints.
Another alternative is to go with a Montgomery “anytime touchdown (-130)” if you’re a little more risk cautious. This plays allows him to score a touchdown in any scenario.
