NEW YORK, NEW YORK - MARCH 18: Mika Zibanejad #93 of the New York Rangers celebrates after a 6-0 win against the Pittsburgh Penguins at Madison Square Garden on March 18, 2023 in New York City. (Photo by Jared Silber/NHLI via Getty Images)
Last night was a disappointing one in the NHL shots market, as we lost two Marchand shots and burned one of our looks. Such is the way of this beast, as we move on to a new day with a pair of plays that look fantastic on the ice, both at plus money.
Tage Thompson surpasses 3.5 SOG (+100 DraftKings)
I was startled to see this as the pricing for Tage Thompson’s shots today, so I jumped on it right away.
Detroit has struggled to slow opponents this season without Dylan Larkin, allowing 37.2 shots per game in nine games. That perfectly matches the location averages I look at every morning, as the Red Wings are allowing nearly 36 shots per game on the road over the past month and a half, while Buffalo is averaging about 34 shots of their own as an offense on home ice during that span.
The cherry on top is that Detroit has allowed the second-most shots to centers in the last ten games, which brings in Tage Thompson.
Thompson is the Sabres’ top-line center and has led Buffalo in 5v5 shots over the last five home games. He’s exceeded this mark in six of his last nine home games, and he’s finished with five, five, nine, two, and four SOG the last five times Detroit has visited town.
I also like it when he scores.
Connor Bedard has come alive, attempting 29 shots in his last two outings. That volume has resulted in SOG totals of five and seven, and I’ll gladly join this ride against the poor Ducks.
Over the last 45 days, Anaheim has allowed 36.6 shots per game on the road, and they’ve been giving up a lot of power play chances as a visitor.
That should be especially important for Bedard, who leads Chicago in PP shots. He has gone over this number twice in a row at home, and at this price, I have to back him. Similarly to Thompson, I am optimistic about Bedard’s goal tonight.
