For the first time in more than two decades, the Miami Dolphins are attempting to repeat as playoff champions.
The Miami Dolphins have (sort of) reached the halfway point of the 2023 season, and they must be pleased with their 6-3 record and first-place standing in the AFC East.
We listed the five biggest reasons for concern that the Dolphins might not be able to replicate their playoff season from 2022 before the season began, so now is a good time to revisit those to see how they played out in the first nine games, as well as the outlook for the rest of 2023 (and January).
1. THE HISTORY OF INJURIES
Prior to the season: To begin, pointing out that injuries can derail a season can apply to just about any team in the NFL because, let’s face it, the Chiefs aren’t the Chiefs without Patrick Mahomes, the Bills aren’t the Bills without Josh Allen, and so on. It’s just that the Dolphins have some key players with a lengthy injury history, which suggests they’ll miss some games. This, of course, begins with quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, but it also includes another key offensive player, tackle Terron Armstead, whose Week 1 status is in doubt after suffering a lower-leg injury in the second joint practice at Houston.
Not to mention that the team’s prized offseason acquisition, cornerback Jalen Ramsey, is out until December due to a knee injury.
Through nine games: The Dolphins have had their fair share of injuries, but they haven’t lost key players for the season (or most of it) like Buffalo did with Tre’Davious White, Matt Milano, and Da’Quan Jones; the Jets with Aaron Rodgers and Alijah Vera-Tucker; the Ravens with J.K. Dobbins; the Browns with Nick Chubb, and so on. Armstead did miss some games, but Tua didn’t miss a snap in the first half of the season except in blowouts, and Ramsey returned to the lineup in October, defying the projected timeline.
The outlook for the rest of 2023: There’s no way of knowing how injuries will play out the rest of the way, but we do know that rookie sensation De’Von Achan is nearing his return to the lineup, which will only help the Dolphins as they begin the stretch run.
2. A HEAVY CONFERENCE
Prior to the season: Because of the nature of the NFL, the balance of power shifts from conference to conference every few years, and it’s currently heavily skewed toward the AFC. And by skewed, we mean VERY skewed. If the Dolphins were in the NFC, the biggest question right now would be what seed they could get in the playoffs.
At this point, it appears that Kansas City, Cincinnati, and Buffalo are the favorites, but the list of AFC playoff contenders is endless: Dolphins, Jets, Ravens, Steelers, Browns (yes, the Browns), Jaguars, and Chargers. That makes ten good teams, and that doesn’t even include the Denver Broncos, who would surprise no one if they rebounded dramatically now that Sean Payton is their head coach. The Dolphins are a good, if not exceptional, team heading into the 2023 season. They are, however, just one of many.
After nine games: Look at the AFC standings, and you’ll see that the ten teams we mentioned are among the 11 that are.The only team with a winning record after nine weeks is the upstart Houston Texans, led by new head coach DeMeco Ryans and rookie hotshot QB C.J. Stroud. The Jets are 4-4 despite losing Rodgers and having a barely functional offense, while the Chargers are having a typical Chargers year, which means they aren’t as good as many expected. But this is still a loaded conference — much better than the NFC, for sure — exactly as we predicted.
The outlook for the rest of 2023: It’s going to be a wild race for the final playoff spot or two (or three) in the AFC, but the Dolphins look like a team that will comfortably get in, especially considering they’re likely to be favored in each of their next five games — against the Raiders, at the Jets, at Washington, vs. Tennessee, vs. the Jets. The question will be whether they can hold off the Bills and win the AFC East for the first time since 2008, as well as make a run for one of the conference’s top seeds, if not THE top seed.
3. WAS THE OFFENSE DETERMINED?
Before the season: We don’t need to remind Dolphins fans that the offense went from being borderline unstoppable at the end of November to a struggling unit in the final six games of the regular season, and the issues started before Tua was sidelined with his second concussion. So the question is whether the Dolphins’ problem was poor execution or whether opponents discovered an antidote to an offense that was hurting defenses with its speed. The question is whether the Dolphins offense can return to its peak form from 2022, but it can’t return to its late-season struggles.
After nine games: The answer is a resounding “no” here, given that the Dolphins lead the NFL in total yards, passing yards, and rushing yards for the majority of the season. But… it’s difficult to ignore the fact that the Dolphins scored only 20, 17, and 14 points in their three marquee games against the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs. Of course, we should point out that all three of those games were on the road, and that when the Dolphins faced lower-level competition at home, they steamrolled everyone — particularly the Broncos.
The outlook for the rest of 2023: With their final three games against Dallas, Baltimore, and Buffalo, the Dolphins will have more opportunities to demonstrate that their offense can be effective regardless of the opponent. Until then, it’s safe to expect the offense to continue putting up big numbers (though it might not be as easy against the Jets). Bottom line, the answer to this question may be the most telling indicator of how far the Dolphins can go this season.
4. ARE SPECIAL TEAMS STRONG?
Prior to the season: Given the difficulty of the Dolphins’ schedule in 2023, a little assistance from the special teams would be appreciated. At the very least, the special teams should not be a hindrance, as they were last year, when the Dolphins were 32nd in kickoff return average allowed, 31st in punt and kickoff return average produced, and 25th in punt return average allowed. That’s not going to suffice. The question now is whether or not things will improve this season.
Through nine games: Things got off to a rough start, with a missed PAT in Week 1, a blocked field goal attempt in Week 2, and a kickoff return for a touchdown allowed in Week 3 (albeit in the fourth quarter of a rout of Denver), but things have improved since. Braxton Berrios has been a solid returner, kick coverage has been good since that hiccup, and Jason Sanders has made his kicks (though they have mostly been extra points rather than field goals). As a result, the Dolphins have won.
The forecast for the rest of 2023: Special teams have become less important in recent years in the NFL, so there’s no guarantee they’ll be a factor down the stretch. At the very least, the Dolphins can be relieved that their kicking game is now solid, and that Sanders did come through last season (after a disappointing year) with that clutch 50-yard field goal against the Jets to send the Dolphins to the playoffs.
5. WILL THE DEFENSE MEET EXPECTATIONS?
Prior to the season: The hiring of Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator raised the bar for the Dolphins’ defense, and why not? After all, Fangio is widely regarded as one of the brightest defensive minds in the game, with a track record of quick turnarounds whenever he takes over a new defense. But, aside from Jalen Ramsey’s injury, is it really that simple that his arrival will propel the defense to, say, a top-10 ranking in 2023?There’s a lot of disdain for former defensive coordinator Josh Boyer, especially when you consider the defense was a major factor in several victories last season (New England, Buffalo, and Pittsburgh come to mind). So, while every NFL analyst will call Fangio’s arrival a significant improvement, he won’t be tackling players or catching interceptions himself. So, yes, there should be high expectations for the defense. That doesn’t guarantee that it will improve dramatically.
Through nine games: It took longer than expected or hoped for, but it appears that the defense we expected with Vic Fangio’s arrival has arrived. The Dolphins have held four of their last five opponents to less than 300 total yards, and any notion that the surge was the result of facing mediocre offenses (such as the Giants or Patriots) vanished when they held Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs to 267 yards last Sunday. The only thing missing from the defense’s recent performance has been a high volume of takeaways, but the defense has emerged as a strength for this team and performed admirably against Kansas City.
The outlook for the rest of 2023: There is no reason to believe the Dolphins defense can’t keep up its strong play because Jalen Ramsey will only get better the more games he plays after returning from knee surgery, and Xavien Howard will do the same after returning from his groin injury. The Dolphins will face tough tests against Dallas, Baltimore, and Buffalo in the final three weeks, but they appear to be well prepared for them, and perhaps the takeaways will start to come.