Shohei in a blue outfit? Potential outcomes of the market if Ohtani signs with the Dodgers
Shohei Ohtani is one of the most anticipated free agents in baseball history, and his choice will undoubtedly have an impact on many other free agents as well as the actions of numerous Major League clubs.
Even though the Dodgers are the team that many executives believe will ultimately win the biggest prize on the market, the Giants, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, Rangers, Blue Jays, and the incumbent Angels are all expected to be involved in the Ohtani bidding. There is still hope for teams like the Yankees, Padres, and Mariners to make a run at the two-way superstar.
Considering the information that has been released thus far, let’s gaze into our crystal ball and speculate as to what actions might transpire should Ohtani sign a deal to play for the Dodgers.
Increased strain on the Giants
Ohtani would become the third superstar to desert the Giants in free agency after Aaron Judge signed with the Dodgers last offseason and Bryce Harper in 2019. After losing out on Judge, San Francisco did come close to signing Carlos Correa to a 13-year, $350 million contract, but the team pulled out of the agreement because of issues raised during the shortstop’s physical examination.
Along with their deals from the previous offseason with Alex Cobb, Alex Wood, and Anthony DeSclafani, the Giants ultimately emerged from free agency with Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto, Mitch Haniger, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, and Taylor Rogers as additions.
According to Baseball-Reference, those nine players only put up 5.3 WAR combined in 2023 as San Francisco finished 79-83 and missed the postseason for the sixth time in the previous seven years. As a result, manager Gabe Kapler was fired, and the Giants started the offseason looking for some big-name players once more.
They cannot possibly afford to fail this time.
If San Francisco is unable to sign Ohtani, we can anticipate that it will take whatever necessary steps to secure the services of Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who is widely regarded as the second-best option in this year’s free-agent class. San Francisco has been linked to almost every big name on the free-agent market.
The Giants’ position-player group is similarly deficient, so they can’t stop there.
Given that both Yamamoto and Cody Bellinger are vying for a $200 million contract, it is unlikely that San Francisco will be able to acquire both players. (No club has signed more than one free agent to an agreement worth $200 million or more during the same offseason.) On the other hand, Yamamoto and Matt Chapman could work well together.
The four-time Gold Glove Award winner, who is acquainted with new San Francisco manager Bob Melvin from their time together with the A’s, has the Giants as one of their top contenders for his services.
Bellinger market becomes hotter, with Yanks at the forefront
Although Yamamoto, 25, is said to be one of the Yankees’ main targets this offseason, it’s unlikely that the Bronx Bombers will actively pursue one of the other top arms available if Yamamoto signs with the Giants.
Rather, we would probably see New York make a major push to sign Bellinger, who would satisfy the team’s needs for a left-handed hitter and center fielder.
Although ESPN’s Jesse Rogers recently expressed doubt that the Cubs would be willing to engage in a bidding war for Bellinger’s services, the team has stated that they are interested in re-signing him. That might give New York the advantage in this competition.
Although Bellinger is the more likely choice, the Yankees have also been connected to Juan Soto of the Padres. The Yanks would only be able to secure Soto for one season unless they put together a sizable trade package to entice him away from San Diego, as he will be eligible for free agency after 2024.
Once Bellinger is wearing pinstripes, the Yanks may choose to make a smaller move to strengthen their rotation—such as re-signing Frankie Montas—and hope that Nestor Cortes and Carlos Rodón are healthier for the upcoming campaign.
Cubs shift their attention to pitching in search of a big splash.
The Cubs’ bold plans for 2024 were alluded to when they fired manager David Ross and signed Craig Counsell to a $40 million, five-year contract.
Bellinger, who signed a one-year, $17.5 million contract with the team, put up a.307 average, 26 home runs, 97 RBIs, 20 steals, and a.881 OPS. As a result, Bellinger left a huge hole in Chicago’s lineup.
But in this fictitious situation, we already have Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, Chapman with the Giants, and Bellinger with the Yankees, so our offensive free-agent options are getting fewer. Should that prove to be true, the Cubs might allocate more funds to enhancing their pitching staff.
The Cubs wanted to make a big splash this offseason, and Blake Snell, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner, would fill the rotation void left by Marcus Stroman opting out of his contract.
Regarding Bellinger’s replacement, how about Rhys Hoskins? Hoskins is a buy-low option similar to Bellinger from last offseason, having missed all of 2023 due to a torn left ACL during Spring Training.
The Cubs had trouble last season finding production at first base, as young player Matt Mervis, veteran additions Eric Hosmer, and Trey Mancini all struggled. Chicago frequently looked to trade acquisition Jeimer Candelario, in addition to Bellinger, to cover that hole in the second half, but Candelario is currently a free agent. When we last saw Hoskins, it was in 2022, and he had 30 home runs in 156 games with the Phillies. It is the 30-year-old’s lifetime.846 OPS, which is actually an improvement over Bellinger’s playing days.829th place.
Rangers sign Hader and bring back Montgomery.
Jordan Montgomery, who was acquired by the Cardinals during the Trade Deadline, improved his stock ahead of free agency by posting a 2.79 ERA over 11 regular-season starts and a 2.90 ERA in the postseason for Texas.
Even though it’s been reported that both parties are open to a reunion, Texas probably won’t move quickly while Ohtani is still a possibility. But if Ohtani were to disappear from the picture, the defending World Series winners would have more room to re-sign their best free agent.
That’s unlikely to be the Rangers’ last stop in free agency, given their recent approach.
Despite having a weak bullpen, Texas won the World Series and has been linked to free-agent closer Josh Hader. If the team is unable to acquire Ohtani, we believe they have a good chance of acquiring the All-Star southpaw.
There are two reasons for this. The Padres trailed the Dodgers by 18 games in the previous season, and if Los Angeles acquires Ohtani, that deficit will only widen. This may make the Friars more realistic about their chances of contending in the National League West in the near future.
With Ohtani off the market, more teams may become interested in Soto, with some that had their eye on the two-way star switching to the Padres outfielder.
To address their pitching needs, the Dodgers are looking to trade.
Since Ohtani had surgery on his right elbow in September to repair a tear in his UCL, he won’t be able to take the mound in a major league game until at least 2025. Thus, even if the Dodgers are successful in signing him, he would not help them with their most urgent need, which is starting pitching.
The starting staff of Los Angeles currently consists of Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Ryan Pepiot, Walker Buehler, who hasn’t pitched for the team since undergoing his second Tommy John surgery in 2022, and Ryan Yarbrough. Los Angeles’ rotation was exposed during its NL Division Series loss to the D-backs.
Including a starter—or two—is essential. Despite having significant financial resources, the Dodgers might not be willing to pay a pitcher a nine-figure contract after signing Ohtani to what is expected to be the biggest free-agent contract in baseball history.
Alternatively, they might turn to the trade market, where Tyler Glasnow of the Rays, Dylan Cease of the White Sox, Corbin Burnes of the Brewers, and Shane Bieber of the Guardians are a few possible targets.
