Tim Britton is well regarded as a contract extension expert. Britton can create predictions for certain extensions for specific players by referencing previous extensions for similar players and allowing for inflation. He divided these exchanges into four categories (each individual item is linked, subscription required): pending free agents, pitchers in arbitration, batters in arbitration, and players who have yet to reach arbitration.
Britton goes into great detail regarding each player, having analyzed around 50 of them in all. He writes in his initial essay that they are unlikely signings. Rather, he is offering a possible contract.
Tim Britton’s list includes two St. Louis Cardinals players: first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and outfielder Lars Nootbaar. I won’t offer Britton’s thoughts on either player since I encourage you to read his work. Instead, I’llpresent 
Paul Goldschmidt
Projection: 4 years and $97 million
Paul Goldschmidt is entering his age-36 season and will be 37 in early September. Britton’s contract prediction includes a reworking of this year’s contract, meaning he will be signed for the seasons from ages 37 to 39 with this extension. His contract has an average annual value (AAV) of close to $25 million, up from his $22 million compensation this year.
Goldschmidt is a Hall of Famer, especially after the 2022 season. The issue here, however, is that players often deteriorate at a 0.5 fWAR rate per season after reaching a certain age. Goldy accumulated 3.7 fWAR last season. According to this tendency, he will have 3.2 fWAR in his first year, 2.7 fWAR in his second year, 2.2 fWAR in his third year, and 1.7 fWAR in his final year.
Goldy could buck the trend and go back in time, but it’s unlikely he’ll achieve the heights he did during his peak years. You are paying Paul Goldschmidt to retire as a Cardinal with this contract, regardless of the cost. The price per win above replacement is a little high with this extension.but given what Goldschmidt has provided since he was brought to the Cardinals in 2019, he is worthy of this. It is pricey, but to see a legend retire in Cardinal Red would be celebrated by fans.
A baseball team can be divided into four groups: outfielders and designated hitters, infielders and catchers, starting rotation, and bullpen. Furthermore, the coaching staff should be divided into various groups.
When evaluating a team’s prospective performance in a season, it is a good idea to divide it down into groups and analyze their strengths and shortcomings. In the case of the St. Louis Cardinals, there is clearly a weak group among these five, and one set of players will undoubtedly lead the pack in 2024.
I recently launched a poll on Twitter/X, asking Cardinals fans which group they thought was the strongest. While I generally agree with the findings, there is one group that I don’t think is receiving enough respect for next year.
If you follow Cardinal Twitter, you’re probably not surprised by this. The hatred for Oli Marmol and his crew is apparent on a daily basis. I mentioned his blame in a previous piece, and after assessing components of a game that a manager may influence, Marmol would not receive a passing grade for last season’s performance.
Behind a questionable manager, the Cardinals have newly hired bench coach Daniel Desclaso, pitching coach Dusty Blake, and hitting coach Turner Ward. Marmol, Blake, and Ward are very experienced members of the coaching staff, but Descalso is in his first year.
Dusty Blake joined the staff as a pitching specialist prior to the 2021 season. Blake previously served as pitching coach for the Duke Blue Devils. The Cardinals hired him to offer fresh and unique ideas to the organization. He has led two subpar pitching staffs since his debut.
Turner Ward was also elevated into his current position in 2022. Prior to joining the Cardinals, Ward was the hitting coach for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds. Since his promotion, he has helped the squad maintain a top-10 offense each year.
The coaching staff is generally the first to be blamed when things go wrong, and while there is some substance to those assertions about firings, they are mostly reactive.and unfounded. However, if the 2024 season starts off the same way as the 2023 season did, fans can expect these coaching roles to be adjusted quickly.
