Tim Britton is well regarded as a contract extension expert. Britton can create predictions for certain extensions for specific players by referencing previous extensions for similar players and allowing for inflation. He divided these exchanges into four categories (each individual item is linked, subscription required): pending free agents, pitchers in arbitration, batters in arbitration, and players who have yet to reach arbitration.
Britton goes into great detail regarding each player, having analyzed around 50 of them in all. He writes in his initial essay that they are unlikely signings. Rather, he is offering a possible contract.
Tim Britton’s list includes two St. Louis Cardinals players: first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and outfielder Lars Nootbaar. I won’t offer Britton’s thoughts on either player since I encourage you to read his work. Instead, I’ll present his projections and share my thoughts on them.
Paul Goldschmidt
Projection: 4 years and $97 million
Paul Goldschmidt is entering his age-36 season and will be 37 in early September. Britton’s contract prediction includes a reworking of this year’s contract, meaning he will be signed for the seasons from ages 37 to 39 with this extension. His contract has an average annual value (AAV) of close to $25 million, up from his $22 million compensation this year.
Goldschmidt is a Hall of Famer, especially after the 2022 season. The issue here, however, is that players often deteriorate at a 0.5 fWAR rate per season after reaching a certain age. Goldy accumulated 3.7 fWAR last season. According to this tendency, he will have 3.2 fWAR in his first year, 2.7 fWAR in his second year, 2.2 fWAR in his third year, and 1.7 fWAR in his final year.
Goldy could buck the trend and go back in time, but it’s unlikely he’ll achieve the heights he did during his peak years. You are paying Paul Goldschmidt to retire as a Cardinal with this contract, regardless of the cost. The price per win over replacement is a little steep with this agreement, but given what Goldschmidt has done since joining the Cardinals in 2019, he is deserving of it. Fans would appreciate seeing a legend retire in Cardinal Red, despite the high cost.
A baseball team can be divided into four groups: outfielders and designated hitters, infielders and catchers, starting rotation, and bullpen. Furthermore, the coaching staff should be divided into various groups.
When evaluating a team’s prospective performance in a season, it is a good idea to divide it down into groups and analyze their strengths and shortcomings. In the case of the St. Louis Cardinals, there is clearly a weak group among these five, and one set of players will undoubtedly lead the pack in 2024.
I recently launched a poll on Twitter/X, asking Cardinals fans which group they thought was the strongest. While I generally agree with the findings, there is one group that I don’t think is receiving enough respect for next year.
If you follow Cardinal Twitter, you’re probably not surprised by this. The hatred for Oli Marmol and his crew is apparent on a daily basis. I mentioned his blame in a previous piece, and after assessing components of a game that a manager may influence, Marmol would not receive a passing grade for last season’s performance.
Behind a questionable manager, the Cardinals have newly hired bench coach Daniel Desclaso, pitching coach Dusty Blake, and hitting coach Turner Ward. Marmol, Blake, and Ward are very experienced members of the coaching staff, but Descalso is in his first year.
Dusty Blake joined the staff as a pitching specialist prior to the 2021 season. Blake previously served as pitching coach for the Duke Blue Devils. The Cardinals hired him to offer fresh and unique ideas to the organization. He has led two subpar pitching staffs since his debut.
Turner Ward was also elevated into his current position in 2022. Prior to joining the Cardinals, Ward was the hitting coach for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Cincinnati Reds. Since his promotion, he has helped the squad maintain a top-10 offense each year.
The coaching staff is generally the first to be blamed when things go wrong, and while there is some substance to those assertions about firings, they are mostly reactive.
Hello everyone! This is the first of a three-part series highlighting my personal top 30 Cardinals prospect list. To determine the order of this potential list, I took into account numerous aspects such as age, level, production, projection, underlying metrics, and film. I hope you all like this series and take something away from each write-up.
If you are not familiar with my work, my name is Kareem Haq. Since 2022, I’ve written and developed social media material about the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system. You may find me at @KareemSSN on X/Twitter and @CardinalsProspects on Instagram. Side note: I recently started a Cardinals Prospects X/Twitter community, so if that interests you, please join here!
Winquest is an athletic right-hander with a high-spin fastball that approaches triple digits. The Cardinals selected him in the eighth round of the 2022 draft from UT Arlington. Winquest was designated as an OF/RHP in college, and while he never played on the field, his athleticism is evident when you watch him pitch. He easily hits the high-90s with his fastball, and in 2023 he had a highest velocity of 99.6 mph (according to Statcast data). His average fastball velocity last year was 95 mph, but it climbed as the season progressed. It also helps that he has about 7 feet of extension on the mound, which makes his pitches appear faster. I mentioned his maximum fastball velocity of 99.6 mph.
Winquest is an athletic right-hander with a fastball that touches triple digits. The Cardinals drafted him from UT Arlington in the eighth round in 2022. Winquest was labeled as an OF/RHP in college, and while he never played on the field, his athleticism is obvious when watching him pitch. His fastball easily reaches the high 90s, and his best velocity in 2023 was 99.6 mph (according to Statcast data). His average fastball velocity was 95 mph last year, but it increased over the season. It also helps that he has approximately 7 feet of extension on the mound, making his pitches appear faster. I mentioned that his maximum fastball velocity is 99.6 mph.
His pitch mix includes the aforementioned high-spin heater, a mid-80s cutter, a high-70s to low-80s slurve, and a firm changeup. Although Winquest’s fastball gets great velo, the shape isn’t particularly great. He gets around 13 inches of induced vertical break and 5 inches of run and throws from a lower-than-average release height. Winquest has gotten up to 19.5 inches of IVB, but even if he lived in the 15-17″ range with his release height and velo, the pitch would play extraordinarily well up in the zone.
While it would be ideal if he had more ride on his fastball, I’m still enamored by Winquest’s ability to reach close to triple digits, especially in a starting pitcher role (currently). Of Winquest’s three secondary offerings, his slurve and changeup show the most promise. His slurve was, without a doubt, his best offering performance-wise last year, with a whopping 47.6 whiff rate and 33% CSW%. The movement profile on the pitch varies a ton but averages around 80 mph with -10″ of IVB and 9 inches of sweep (up to 16.4″ of sweep). I think it would be a lot of fun if Winquest added a true sweeper to his pitch-mix, thrown a tick harder than his slurve.
Winquest also throws a 90 mph changeup. Even though the pitch is only 5 mph off the fastball, it has a difference of almost 6 inches of fade, which helps create a solid tunnel. The pitch induced a ton of swings and misses, with over a 30% whiff rate. It’s his go-to secondary offering against lefties, but he also has a feel for it against righties. Winquest’s cutter is currently a work in progress, but it could be a key pitch for him to help bridge the gap between his fastball and slurve. The offering is 83-87 mph, with 3-5 inches of sweep, but the command on the pitch needs refinement.
Winquest sometimes struggles with his mechanics and that is something he is going to need to clean up in order to keep his starting pitcher hopes alive. Additionally, his velocity does tend to drop as his pitch count rises. Although it seems inevitable that he will shift to a bullpen role in the future, he’s still one of the most underrated prospects in the system. With a fastball that continues to increase in velocity and secondary pitches that can flash, he will be a name to watch this year. I understand the concern about his fastball shape, but this is a guy who can run it up to 100 mph with 7 feet of extension (102 mph perceived velo) and has an outstanding feel for spinning the ball.
