The Cardinals formula for success in 2024 was on display in win over Padres

If the Cardinals can consistently play like they did on Monday during the 2024 season, it’s clear to see how they’ll be competitors.

If you’re a team like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Texas Rangers, or whatever you consider to be the finest in baseball, you have a variety of strategies to win games. Their front offices have done a fantastic job over the last few years of building squads capable of winning the World Series.

When it comes to the St. Louis Cardinals, at least as they currently stand, the path to victory has far less room for error, though their series opening victory over the San Diego Padres demonstrated that it can be incredibly effective.

Throughout the Cardinals’ first series against the Dodgers, I kept telling myself, “I can’t wait to see this team play against the San Diego Padres and the other teams on their future schedule.” The Dodgers are currently in a different class than the Cardinals, and while that is a separate issue that must be addressed, it does not necessarily imply that the Cardinals are incapable of success this season, as Monday’s game demonstrated.

On Monday night, all four elements were evident, and the Cardinals dominated the game from start to end. It doesn’t mean St. Louis is a World Series candidate right now, or that they won’t have a bad season, but they should be able to beat good teams like the Padres if they play to their strengths.

People are probably tired of the quality start metrics, but they must be stated if you want to grasp how the front office anticipates this team contending in 2024. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (subscription required) did an excellent write-up on this a few weeks ago, but I’ll share some minor details I wrote about earlier in the offseason.

– In 2023, the Cardinals went 34-19 (.641 win percentage) when their starting pitcher went 6+ innings and allowed 4 or fewer earned runs. When they did not get that from their rotation, they went 37-72 (.307 winning percentage).

– Adam Wainwright, Jake Woodford, Drew Rom, Dakota Hudson, and Matthew Liberatore made a total of 60 starts in 2023, with only 10 of them being quality starts (10%). Their ERAs in the rotation ranged from 5.26 to 8.02, and they all averaged only 4.1 to 5.1 innings pitched each start.

Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson combined for 65 starts in 2023, with 30 of them (46%) being quality starts.